Already qualified for the UEFA Nations League quarter-finals with one game to spare, European heavyweights Italy and France will convene at San Siro on Sunday.

While the Azzurri continued their unbeaten run to stay top of League A Group 2 in midweek, Les Bleus were held to a home draw and must now win by two goals in order to finish first.

Needing only one point to secure a place in the Nations League’s knockout phase, Italy met Belgium on Thursday night, when Sandro Tonali‘s early strike ultimately proved just enough to claim the Azzurri’s fourth win in five games.

After surviving a couple of scares, Luciano Spalletti‘s side extended their undefeated streak since tamely exiting Euro 2024, having previously beaten Israel twice and drawn against the Belgians in Rome despite playing almost an hour with 10 men.

Following Spalletti’s change of tactical approach and selection policy, La Nazionale had kicked off their campaign in early September, recovering from conceding a goal within 13 seconds at Parc des Princes to conquer old foes France in Paris.

As a result, Italy are safely through to the quarter-finals – scheduled for March – and can also finish first if they avoid defeat by two goals or more on Sunday.

Two months after their first competitive meeting with France for some 16 years, the Azzurri will now close out Group 2 by hosting their neighbours in Milan.

There is plenty of shared history between the pair, as Les Bleus prevailed in the Euro 2000 final before Italy famously won the 2006 World Cup decider on penalties – and the latest page will be written this weekend.

Though France are also assured of a place in the next round, their November camp has brought many more questions than answers so far.

After a build-up bogged down in speculation about captain Kylian Mbappe‘s continued absence, under-fire coach Didier Deschamps was left frustrated on Thursday evening, as his side failed to capitalise on their dominance against Israel and were held to a 0-0 draw.

Adding to a sense of alienation, the game was played in front of a sparsely populated Stade de France amid security concerns, with scuffles breaking out between rival supporters in the near-empty stands.

Since losing 3-1 to Italy in their Nations League opener, Les Bleus had gone on to claim maximum points from their next three matches – including two wins against Belgium – but failure to perform against Group 2’s rock-bottom team has now stalled that winning momentum.

Therefore, Deschamps must rely on his past record to demonstrate he is still the right man for the job: in addition to claiming global glory back in 2018, the former Juventus midfielder led a French victory in the 2021 Nations League.

Replicating the latter success next summer would perhaps quieten his critics as the build-up to the 2026 World Cup begins, but his first task is to topple a rejuvenated Italy in their own backyard.

Italy may make changes, with progress already guaranteed, and that could include some rotation up front: Mateo Retegui has established himself as the Azzurri’s first-choice striker this season, but Moise Kean is in fine form for Fiorentina and scored a Serie A hat-trick last week.

It remains to be seen whether Nicolo Barella will continue in his new role linking midfield and attack, and Daniel Maldini and Giacomo Raspadori are his most credible competitors after struggling Roma captain Lorenzo Pellegrini was dropped.

The hosts’ injury list features Arsenal defender Riccardo Calafiori and Torino midfielder Samuele Ricci, plus long-term absentees Gianluca Scamacca and Giorgio Scalvini; Manuel Locatelli was drafted in to replace Ricci and will compete with Nicolo Rovella for selection in midfield.

Meanwhile, France are without Real Madrid’s Kylian Mbappe for reasons that remain unclear, while Wesley Fofana, Ousmane Dembele, Loic Bade and Aurelien Tchouameni are all sidelined by injury.

AC Milan’s Theo Hernandez may miss the chance to start on home turf at San Siro due to a knock, but Mike Maignan features in goal and Inter Milan star Marcus Thuram will vie with Randal Kolo Muani to lead Les Bleus’ attack.

Kingsley Coman was called up to replace Dembele, who withdrew because of a thigh problem, and is in competition with Michael Olise and Bradley Barcola for places across the final third.

Italy possible starting lineup:
Donnarumma; Di Lorenzo, Buongiorno, Bastoni; Cambiaso, Barella, Locatelli, Tonali, Dimarco; Maldini; Kean

France possible starting lineup:
Maignan; Kounde, Konate, Saliba, Digne; Kone, Rabiot; Olise, Nkunku, Coman; Thuram

The two nations haven taken just one win each from their four games played so far and with Germany five points clear at the top, Saturday’s game is a must win for both sides.

Ronald Koeman’s men responded well after that defeat to England in the semi-finals of the Euros with a 5-2 win over Bosnia and Herzgovina in their first 2024-25 Nations League campaign, but they have not showed that sort of performance since then. The Dutch Eleven drew with Germany and Hungary on Matchday 2 and 3 respectively, before losing their last encounter with Die Mannschaft in Germany back in October.

Hungary meanwhile didn’t have a good start to their 2024-25 Nations League campaign. The Tricolours’ first encounter saw them concede five goals against Germany without responding but the team’s response has been great. Having beaten Bosnia and Herzegovina in their last encounter after drawing the previous two games, Marco Rossi’s men will fancy their chances of securing at least one point on Saturday.

Meetings between the Netherlands and Hungary are also often entertaining. Five of their last six encounters involving the two nations across all competitions produced four or more goals and it wouldn’t be surprising to see a similar trend on Saturday.

Round five in the UEFA Nations League will kick off with Kazakhstan playing host to Austria at Ortalyq stadion on Thursday afternoon. The Hawks are bottom of League B Group 3, while Das Team are in second place. Check out our match prediction below. 

Kazakhstan have managed just one point from their four games to date and will be playing their remaining two games as a formality as they will not be able to secure promotion. 

The Hawk’s only point in this competition came via a goalless draw in round one against Norway before suffering three consecutive defeats, two against Slovenia and the other to this opponent. 

Notably, the hosts are the only side in League A or B that have yet to score a goal in the competition, However, they have only lost one of their last five home games (W3 D1 L1).

Meanwhile, after a slow start, Austria have now earned seven points from their three games to date which puts them level with Norway and Slovenia who have identical records ahead of round five.